Introduction
Li Shihe
Appraised as Father of TD in China.
Born in Chongqing, he graduated from Chengdu Institute of Telecommunication Engineering in 1963 and received his postgraduate degree at Physics Department of Nanjing University. In 1982, he received a doctor degree at Montreal University of Canada.
Doctor Li Shihe, professor level senior engineer and doctoral advisor, now acts as the senior technical consultant of Datang Mobile. He has been dealing with scientific research and management work for a long time and made great accomplishment and achievement in the fields of microwave communication and mobile telecom.
The honors he has won include National Science Conference Award, First-class Prize for Scientific and Technical Advancement by Ministry of Post and Telecommunications and National First-class Prize for Scientific and Technical Advancement. Among his research achievements, the most representative one was TD-SCDMA wireless transmission technical proposal, which was developed by Datang scientific research team led by Li Shihe, submitted to ITU on behalf of China, and accepted as one of the three major standards for 3G mobile communication wireless access technologies. This standard is unprecedented in China’s telecom history for over a century. While drafting and completing this standard, he has been responsible for the development of a full range of TD-SCDMA system sample devices, which will open a door to a huge industry with promising domestic and international markets. With this technical evolution, China will become one of the countries with most advanced mobile communication technologies. As a doctoral advisor, Li Shihe has cultivated over 20 postgraduates and several post doctoral researchers since 1984. These people are now making great contributions to communication enterprise of China by doing scientific research and management work.
Interview
“In China, people are sensitive about their reputation. Let’s satisfy them.”
– Why wasn’t TD killed at birth
Wang Jing:
Dr. Li, as a founder or TD technologies, you are called “Father of TD”, which title you doubtlessly deserve. This year marks the tenth anniversary of TD-SCDMA being submitted to ITU. In our interview, can you first recollect development history and stories of TD-SCDMA briefly?
Li Shihe:
To be honest, the development of TD technology in China is a natural course, and also a very hard and tortuous journey. From the point of view of macroeconomics, China had backward economy before 19980s. As the Opening and Reform started in 1980s, people gradually learned how to become rich by such as working for foreign enterprises and starting their own assembly business, and obviously China became a world plant during this course. This was what foreign investors had expected, because they can hire employees in China and make great profit. About ten years ago when this World Plant concept was gaining popularity, Ministry of Information Industry was beginning to find ways to facilitate development of our own IPRs, industries, technologies, and truly independent operators so that China can evolve from a major telecom market into a country with leading technical strength and Chinese enterprises can be the master of their own fate. TD was developed in such a situation.
Wang Jing:
This situation gave birth to TD.
Li Shihe:
This situation reflects the social demand from people who didn’t want to work for foreign enterprises as well as the general political and economic development conditions in China at that time. It was easy to kill TD at birth in many occasions during the past decade. A US professor told me three years ago that western multinational corporations felt regret because they could have killed TD but didn’t. Why? Because these companies were all focusing on the huge communication market in China when we submit TD standard. They wouldn’t like to object to this standard strongly with the understanding that people need a lot of communication services in China as the economy grows rapidly, and that China was the largest market around the world.
TD could have been killed easily, but these foreign enterprises were thinking: “In China, people are sensitive about their reputation. Let’s satisfy them by allowing them to have their own standard.”
Wang Jing:
They didn’t believe that TD would grow strong.
Li Shihe:
Yes, they didn’t expect us to develop a mature and strong standard and they believed they would always have firm control over Chinese market.
Wang Jing:
So it was a very hard time in the beginning.
Li Shihe:
Sure it was! Only Siemens made earnest efforts in developing this standard, and other enterprises were just waiting in doubt. We also lacked support from domestic enterprises and research authorities. Only Zhou Huan and me were involved. Zhou Huan was very determined and told me he would like to sell all of his belongings to get the plan started. We even mortgaged the buildings and property in the institute, to collect money. If we fail, we would lose everything.
Wang Jing:
So no turning back was allowed and you had to fight a way out.
Li Shihe:
Absolutely. We probably took both foreign and domestic enterprises by surprise because they didn’t count on our effort. We won National Technical Advancement Price when this project was launched ten years ago, but we only got 1 million Yuan from the government and other funds had to be collected from enterprises.
Wang Jing:
Back then, TD was not generally related to national interest.
Li Shihe:
That’s true. It was the hardest time from 2000 to 2003 because we this plan could be terminated at any time. Also, we felt the power of solidarity during this period. People working on TD feared nothing and we were not doing this for money. We fought our lives for it. About five years ago, promotion of independent innovations were included in government policies because innovative industries were a must for strong economy system from the view of macroeconomics. This policy was made clear and discussed as the first issue during the session of the Eighth National Congress of the CPP. This was when we began to gain strong public and financial support and started efficient. To be frank, we wasted a lot of time before working efficiently on TD development in the past few years.
Darkness before dawn？
– With no market response, TD is facing another ”To be or not to be” choice
Wang Jing:
Your view of TD euthanasia has been circulated in many web sites in recent days.
Li Shihe:
TD euthanasia is not my opinion. I just quoted it from others. At this stage, the life or death of TD is not determined by manufacturers or technical developers. Some would say there is no user or market response. This is just an excuse. TD is facing very dangerous situation now!
Wang Jing:
So far TD has been promoted from technical level to the market. China Mobile started commercial trial use on April 1. According to recent results and conditions, we feel that TD can be further developed in terms of pricing policies and trial use procedures and methods.
Li Shihe:
Nobody plans and regulates it. That’s the current situation.
Wang Jing:
Over 2000 base stations have been established in TD network in Beijing, but there are many issues concerning coverage. The network started signal transmission from April 1, but people found it difficult to get quality signals and smooth communication. This situation was very negative for the promotion of TD.
Li Shihe:
Why have TD facilities been established in Shanghai and Guangzhou rapidly with basic optimization? It has been completed accepted in Guangzhou, which proves its feasibility. You can always find a thousand reasons and evidences for not being able to do it. That’s why I quoted the view of TD euthanasia, which means TD dies when people don’t need it and the telephone system doesn’t work. You see the actual problem is that we don’t know who are responsible for making decisions and how we should make plan and preparation. So the live of death of TD is not dependent on technologies or products.
Wang Jing:
There is no clear response from the market and no explicit market plan.
Li Shihe:
Yes, we don’t have clear market response and market plan, so currently there is no way out.
Wang Jing:
It’s difficult for some small companies to survive in the near future.
Li Shihe:
They are already on the edge of bankruptcy. The manufacturers are facing very dangerous situation and will continuously phase out from the market. Long and medium term plans for the coming 15 years were established by the government last year with high expectation for TD. However, so far no actual projects have been launched. It is explicated noted in the plans that nationwide TD network should be constructed in China by 2011. But who are responsible for these tasks? And who are responsible for deloyment? [Editor note: Kaiming, a TD chip manufacturer, announced broken capital chain the day after this interview.]
Wang Jing:
Since it has been included in the government development plans that nationwide TD network should be constructed in China by 2011, Ministry of Information Industry, or Ministry of Industry and Information, should make arrangement for implementation.
Li Shihe:
How? Should they make arrangement for network deployment? Now more and more people feel crisis, but all of them are normal people and the opinions can’t be conveyed to influential people. The most important thing at current stage is to urge decision-makers and influential people to promote TD development with compulsory policies. Any flexible plans or instructions might be suspended and a thousand reasons can be found for such suspension such as bad time and immature environment, and the instructions all turn into garbage with these reasons.
I remember that there was a major public resentment when State Development and Reform Commission first announced its support to TD in 2002 and 2003. Later we made investigation and found out people writing article to attack TD were secretly paid.
Wang Jing:
Is this true?
Li Shihe:
Some people won’t do such things, but others are very weak and sell themselves for money. That’s why we heard a lot of objections. I could hardly argue with them in public media because they even didn’t know basic concepts. It’s like casting pearls before swine.
The day before TD signal transmission was started, we already saw an article in some media describing how TD is not recognized and greeted by the public. A reporter in support of TD called the writer of this article and found out the truth. This writer just passed by a business hall at about 8 a.m., and seeing no customer at the entrance, he returned home to write this article. The business hall actually opened at 9:30 and started TD sales at 10 o’clock. This article had very negative influence, and I can’t remember how many calls I received from public media for it.
Wang Jing:
We don’t have favorable public opinions for the health development of TD.
Li Shihe:
Yes, No matter what technical direction or field is involved, domestic and foreign interest groups will force pressure on you through public opinions. Cherry, for example, used to face such a situation and had to deal with pressure from different sources. They managed to survive by establishing a joint venture with Shanghai Automobile. People tend to be easy on automobile models offered by foreign manufacturers and hard on domestic ones. This is not just the case for Cherry. It actually reflects a major risk in China economy. Previously I didn’t think much about this, but was able to comprehend this situate on a higher lever after talking with some economists. According to their opinion, Chinese economy is facing the most difficult time now. Although both GDP and personal income are growing, the real crisis still exists. To be brief, it’s easy for China to get rich, but extremely hard to get strong.
“There is no reason for not choosing TD in 3G age.”
– A participator of international telecom environment construction
Wang Jing:
What are the general conditions of 3G in China now? Will it be still developed according?
Li Shihe:
Sure it will.
Wang Jing:
Will this stage be very short?
Li Shihe:
It’s not possible. 3G is a technical development phase that can’t be bypassed. Ignoring 3G will lead to extreme pressure. We have to experience such a technical and market development stage. However, its duration is dependent on many factors. At present the critical factor is decision-making and implementation instead of technologies, manufacturers or product maturity. You can see technical advancement in exhibitions. For products offered by mainstream suppliers such as Datang and Zhongxing, although China Mobile hasn’t presented corresponding products of the next generation, I have made full preparation. What’s more, our technology can be completed by means of software upgrading. It also has the advantage of low cost, with a price lower than half of GSM. So there is not reason for not using it. It should be a reasonable choice for normal people.
Wang Jing:
Maybe other 3G systems are also feasible.
Li Shihe:
You are right. That’s the real problem.
Wang Jing:
From technical point of view, what improvement is required for further TD development?
Li Shihe:
We are still working intensively on technical issues.
Wang Jing:
Does the system support HSDPA?
Li Shihe:
Completely. HSUPA standards have just been established. We will present products by the end of this year, and LTE will probably come out next year.
Wang Jing:
China is becoming a participator in international telecom environment construction.
Li Shihe:
Yes we are. Although 3GPP standard is not mature, we have almost completed sample devices, and the only work left is final establishment of the standard. The standard can be completely met within half a year. It is expected that Chinese patents are comparable in number to foreign ones in core 3G technologies both at current stage and in the future. This can be clearly demonstrated. In terms of quality of technical products, overall competition is possible now. We can’t say we have better products, but at least we also have supporting patents and on the same level as competitors.
Wang Jing:
If we focus on LTE all the time, will it have negative influence on existing TD products?
Li Shihe:
Not really. This won’t affect system manufacturers since accompanying software is the critical factor.
Wang Jing:
So will LTE be only subject to TD system upgrading in the future?
Li Shihe:
Some modifications will be made for sure, including RF. Many system improvements can be completed by software upgrading. Therefore, in terms of system technologies, we are even faster than international enterprises. But the situation is different for terminals because the market is not clear and manufacturers are not able to start production.
Wang Jing:
What do you think can guarantee the healthy development of TD?
Li Shihe. This is quite simple. We need a practical plan that allows TD network to covers all major cities in China by 2011. I can say for sure that none bottlenecks is caused by manufacturers.
Wang Jing:
So are they related to policy and management?
Li Shihe:
You know how GSM system was initially opened in China 10 years ago. Back then Minister Wu Jichuan organized a conference at the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications attended by heads of telecom administrations of all provinces. Participants gathered in the afternoon and the meeting was held in the evening, during which an order was made to use GSM compulsorily as much as possible in spite of other negative factors. At early stage, failed mobile phone calls were very frequent and the connection rate even can’t reach 30% by 1997 and 1998. This is much worse than TD. Only two mobile phone models were offered, which provided intermittent communication and very poor standby time. Now the connection rate of TD is 98% to 99%, which means much better performance than GSM network. The connection rate of TD exceeds 98% at all testing points.
I used to make calls from a running levitated train in Shanghai to compare GSM and TD mobile phones. Now we have many stations alongside the highroads, but when I made that trip the construction was not finished and only a half of the total length was covered. TD could be connected for a length of 300 kilometers, as compared to 200 kilometer for GSM. So I believe TD is not worse than GSM. We can’t expect a perfect system. I remember in 2004 and 2005 when WCDMA was first launched in Hong Kong, each mobile phone was equipped with three chargers for use in home, car and office respectively. The phone had to be recharged whenever it lost power. Why didn’t we hear any complaint saying WCDMA was not practical?
Wang Jing:
Is it about market guiding and operation?
Li Shihe:
It’s about interest!
The starting gun is held by the government
– Words from Father of TD for adherents
Wang Jing:
You treat TD like your own child from the very beginning. The past ten years was a hard time for you. If unfortunately TD can’t be widely accepted and suffers euthanasia, many people will feel sad.
Li Shihe:
Yes. Decisions must be made and feasible plans should be implemented. This is what we actually need. For an industry in such a development stage, the operators have to make final rush. No matter how fast you were before, you have to be faster to win. When we think about the development of GSM, we could conclude that without the business in China market and support from China Mobile, it’s not possible for GSM to become this popular. Even Ericsson were facing dangerous economic situation and could hardly find way out. Launch of GSM system in China made things totally different immediately. This just happened about ten years ago and we shouldn’t forget. There was a time when product delivery was difficult, and regulations were modified by the government to allow work at weekends. The poor GSM network gradually went mature. From technical point of view, TD is one generation ahead of PHS and has lower cost than PHS. Since PHS is so popular, why TD can’t be widely adopted?
Wang Jing:
Does TD have better coverage in cities if repeated investments and voice coverage are considered?
Li Shihe:
The major concern in cities is data and there won’t be repeated coverage related issues.
Wang Jing:
Will repeated voice coverage occur, if not in cities, in rural areas?
Li Shihe:
Repeated coverage has been caused by G-network, C-network and PHS network in turn. So it won’t be any problem for repeated coverage of TD.
Wang Jing:
You have mentioned that the imminent task would be constructing network as soon as possible across the whole country.
Li Shihe:
It has to be done immediately with concrete plans and actions, otherwise the situation will be dangerous. It would be too late if we took actions after the Olympic Games. To my knowledge, local operators welcome TD network. For example, in Shijiazhuang, they are eager to deploy TD network, which has been connected to Baoding and is very near to Shijiazhuang. Many provincial mobile companies are also enthusiastic, but there is nothing they can do since they don’t have the right to make decisions.
Wang Jing:
If the government establishes a general policy for large-scale network deployment, what do you see in the future of TD?
Li Shihe:
We can absolutely work it out. After the network construction during last year, we are pretty confident about the overall quality and speed of the network. The construction in last years was very fast. In Guangzhou, it only took less than 8 months to complete half of the total work that consumed 20 years previously. Although both the contractors and us were not very confident about Guangzhou project in the beginning, it was completed successfully. The daily failure rate of the devices is less than one 1‰, and some of these faults are caused by transmission rather than devices.
Wang Jing:
Is there any problem about station sites?
Li Shihe:
We tried to use GSM stations and add some devices. Construction in Guangzhou and Shanghai was started in last May and finished by the end of last November in Guangzhou and by the end of last December in Shanghai respectively.
Wang Jing:
So far there is no conformed report about network expansion.
Li Shihe:
No. We are all waiting for the starting gun at the scratch line. If you have Liu Xiang wait for the starting gun for as long as an hour, he will also feel too exhausted to run. I think this is very possible. However, from the point of view of history development of a country, much lesson can be learned from such things. People will benefit from such experience and comment on our work in the future. I have made my efforts and won’t regret no matter whether TD will succeed in the future.
Wang Jing:
Thank you very much for taking this interview. We have learned much from your opinions and believe that this interview will inspire more people. Thank you!
